Trans-ionospheric transmissions and those which are refracted by the ionosphere (e.g. GPS, HF communications) are critical for a number of systems in a variety of industries (communications, mining, etc.). Transmissions which pass through bubbles or plumes of depleted plasma generated after sunset in low latitude regions can be subjected to rapid fluctuations of the transmission amplitude and phase (ionospheric scintillation). In this work a new approach is described to produce global low latitude probabilistic forecasts of scintillation caused by these Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs).

The Advanced Ensemble electron density (Ne) Assimilation System (AENeAS) is a state-of-the-art physics-based ensemble data assimilation model of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. The individual ensemble members are used to generate probability density functions of parameters associated with EPB generation. Applying this technique at regularly spaced longitudinal intervals can provide an early warning forecast of low latitude ionospheric scintillation occurring during the current/upcoming evening. A case study is discussed which compares the forecast skill of using the probability of vertical plasma drift with the probability of Rayleigh-Taylor growth rates. Furthermore the impact of using AENeAS rather than a physics-based model without data assimilation is also discussed.