Monday

A proof-of-concept modelling capability that incorporates a detailed 3-D structure of Earth’s electrical conductivity in a GIC estimation procedure has been developed (GIC-SMAP) and verified based on GIC measurements in northern Sweden. However, 3-D modelling show that southern Sweden is exposed to stronger electric fields due to a combined effect of a low crustal conductivity and the influence of the surrounding coast effect. Earlier studies have also shown that the Swedish power grid is especially vulnerable to GICs in the southern parts. This study utilizes GIC measurements recently conducted in collaboration with Svenska Kraftnät on a power line in southern Sweden to verify the GIC-SMAP modelling framework in this region. After verification the model is used to quantify the hazard of severe GIC by applying historic recordings of strong geomagnetic disturbances to the GIC-SMAP modelling framework. Moreover, we predict the GIC in the power line based on the modelled magnetic disturbance during the St. Patricks storm in March 2015 by the Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). This event included a rapid, high magnitude localized magnetic disturbance over Scandinavia and is used to investigate the GIC prediction capability of current state-of-the art solar- and magnetospheric models due to its potential hazard of driving extreme GICs.